Sensex - Sense The Next Big Thing: August 2013

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Nifty short term view

Nifty -- Resistance at 5420-30 as shown by green trend line. A trend change will occur for any meaningful rally only above 5530

Nifty

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Cairn India - Breakout, headed towards 330-335

Strong breakout above 314 with good volume.

Heading towards 330-335 Keep a stop loss of 307 on closing basis.

Cairn India

Monday, August 19, 2013

Nifty -- Long term trend line at work

Any close below 5360-50 game over for Indian Markets. Meanwhile markets are oversold and expect bounce back to 5600-5625 levels before any panic sell off. RSI and USDINR too suggests some recovery in Indian markets.Lets take this market step by step before making a sensational analysis.

Nifty

Friday, August 16, 2013

Google - Making a long term top ? Chart tells so.

Looking at the chart, it is making a topping out pattern around $920 and confirmation comes on close below $848.

Strategy : - Sell Google below $848-847 keep a stop loss of $875 on closing basis for targets $790-785.

Google

Apple - Good Turn around, 9% return in 10 days.

I had covered apple story on 06, May 2013 as per below link. Expected "Apple" to turn around after consolidation and give a break out above $460.

After 3 months of consolidation, on 05th August 2013 apple gave a breakout above $460 and given a good entry for investors to buy Apple business.

Post breakout apple did $502 as of today and can do 510-520 as part of triangle targets which will be a return of 13%.

As of today in 10 days Apple gave a return of 9%. Isn't it a good return from a great company in such a short period of time.

Technical Analysis is a great tool to pick best business across the globe to make money with good risk reward. we waited for 3 months for Apple to give a buy signal and the moment it gave buy signal there you have 9% return in just 10 trading days.

Here is today's chart showing how this analysis worked which was predicted 3 months back.

Prediction on Apple 3 months back :- https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152332933301002&set=gm.544242402283534&type=1&theater

Apple

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Infosys -- Changing Guard after 2 years of trouble

Stock was consolidating between 2200 to 3000 for a very very good amount of time.

Now its time for making a comeback as it was the biggest laggard among IT heavy weights (TCS, HCL Tech and Wipro.)

Investors look to accumulate stock between 3000-3060 and add on dips for target 3500 and then 3800.

Technically stock is telling us that worst is over for infosys. Fundamentally this will be out after some time.

Infosys

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Technical View on USD INR - Is it nearing a TOP ??

USD-INR: Top is placed at 62.3 and then at 63.5-64 range as shown by "GREEN" and "RED" trend lines. Looking at Doji formed yesterday,upper red trend line (December 2011 top & June 2012 top) and divergence on RSI this asset class could have made a top or could make at 63.5-64 range in worst case scenario. Levels 62.5 and 63.5 are the reversal zone. Confirmation of top is confirmed only on break of 58.70 on closing basis.

If we look at the move from July 2011 to December 2011 (44 to 54.6) which is a 22-23% rally, post that USDINR has seen a correction of 11-12%.

Again from February 2012 to June 2012 (49 to 57.4) USDINR gave a rally of 17-18% rally. yet again it has seen a correction of 10-11%.

Now we have seen a rally of about 17% from 52/53 to 62.1 from May 2013 till date.

Every time USDINR made a rally of about 17-22% it has corrected for about 10-12%.

Will it happen yet again and USDINR correct by 10-12% and touch 56-57 levels????

We have wait and watch for reversal signals upon topping out.

Looking at USDINR chart there are some topping out signals are visible around 62.5-64 range.

If it were to happen i think Nifty is poised at making a near term bottom in the zone 5400-5480 as shown in below chart and we could well be surprised.

If 5400-5380 is broken on Nifty on closing basis then this market will be in deep RED.

Just a Technical Thought, views/feedback are welcome :)

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Technical View on Nifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty

Nifty and Sensex are diverging from current breakdown seen today. Nifty has given complete breakdown where as Sensex holding on to its previous low as well as trend line support as shown in Chart.

Even if Nifty has to go down and crack completely to witness panic fall there should be a bounce before it happens due to extreme oversold conditions. Bounce to 5750-5800 is possible.

Below Charts are self explanatory.