USD-INR: Top is placed at 62.3 and then at 63.5-64 range as shown by "GREEN" and "RED" trend lines. Looking at Doji formed yesterday,upper red trend line (December 2011 top & June 2012 top) and divergence on RSI this asset class could have made a top or could make at 63.5-64 range in worst case scenario. Levels 62.5 and 63.5 are the reversal zone. Confirmation of top is confirmed only on break of 58.70 on closing basis.
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If we look at the move from July 2011 to December 2011 (44 to 54.6) which is a 22-23% rally, post that USDINR has seen a correction of 11-12%.
Again from February 2012 to June 2012 (49 to 57.4) USDINR gave a rally of 17-18% rally. yet again it has seen a correction of 10-11%.
Now we have seen a rally of about 17% from 52/53 to 62.1 from May 2013 till date.
Every time USDINR made a rally of about 17-22% it has corrected for about 10-12%.
Will it happen yet again and USDINR correct by 10-12% and touch 56-57 levels????
We have wait and watch for reversal signals upon topping out.
Looking at USDINR chart there are some topping out signals are visible around 62.5-64 range.
If it were to happen i think Nifty is poised at making a near term bottom in the zone 5400-5480 as shown in below chart and we could well be surprised.
If 5400-5380 is broken on Nifty on closing basis then this market will be in deep RED.
Just a Technical Thought, views/feedback are welcome :)
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